Shenwan Hong short-term funds continued to consolidate, waiting for reinforcements-jiqingwuyuetian

Shenwan Hong: short-term funds continued to consolidate, waiting for reinforcements continued short-term consolidation, waiting for reinforcements of funds based on the current market, short-term market is still dominated by consolidation, waiting for the arrival of incremental funding. After rising through early this week, short-term market consolidation into the leather. One of the reasons is because the overseas market adjustments, plus the RMB exchange rate fell below the 1 mark this week than 6.7, causing continues to depreciate slightly, a linkage effect on the stock market. On the other hand is the market need to have incremental funding support in advance, because the property market rebound after the holiday by intensive regulation, long expected the property market funds in the market caused by, and the stock market stock funds rarely, apparently unable to rely on their own to promote a sustained rebound, but the market funds turn around and it is difficult to get, the middle requires a conversion cycle, so the market after a rebound in the need for multi support for a period of time, to see whether property funds to enter the stock market as expected. If they arrive, do not exclude Zaishangtaijie, whereas high hold down gently. But it is waiting for the support phase, so the amplitude is very small, liangnengweisu. As for the funds can reinforce, one is to look at the Yinzhengzhuanzhang funds have continued net inflow, it will be next Tuesday evening will last a few days to disclosure. The two is to look at the market rally could continue peatlands, as long as the volume is "echocardiographyaction", is a real word, otherwise do not rule out the possibility to see more and more small talk, do advance secretly by an unknown path. The above two points, also need to confirm after. From a technical point of view, the Shanghai index is still in the process to fill the gap, the 3078 point gap is a short-term goal, again, is the 3088 point line position, considering the time has entered the four quarter, no special news, little possibility of challenging the line. Operating strategy: are batch trim, cash income, control positions, cautious chase, short-term oriented. The Ministry of finance the third batch of PPP demonstration project landing, the Ministry of finance policy catalyst continuous release of 20 ministries jointly announced the third batch of government and social capital cooperation demonstration projects, demonstration projects launched by relevant departments attach great importance to strengthen cooperation, to ensure that the project landed as soon as possible, demonstration projects successful experience can also help other smooth implementation of PPP project. Investment advice: recommended performance flexibility, a reasonable valuation of the leading PPP (Gezhouba Dam: PPP+ environmental protection standard of the lowest valuation), Su cross section (scarce design standard, PPP obvious advantages), Oriental Garden (multiple projects included in the third batch of demonstration projects), HUD ecological benefit (watershed and sponge City PPP leading long yuan construction (PPP), first mover advantages, consolidate the leading position), Wai Hai shares (will increase after the share price suppression factor release). Recommendations concern several major central enterprises construction demand, the central enterprises PPP share high orders this year and performance growth accelerated, the stock price has been at the bottom, can be of concern Chinese railway construction, China building, China CCCC, Chinese railway, electric power construction, China Metallurgical China Chinese. Small plates of the first three quarters of the overall profitability is superior, concern about the proposed extension of endogenous Shuangyou growth stocks recent market is still in a narrow range pattern, volume at historic lows, the Shanghai Composite Index, SZSE gem index fell 13 this year.

申万宏源:短线持续盘整,等待资金援军 短线持续盘整,等待资金援军根据目前行情,短线大盘仍以盘整为主,等待增量资金的到来。在经历周初上涨之后,短线大盘陷入牛皮盘整。一方面是因为海外市场出现调整,加上人民币汇率本周跌破1比6.7关口,引发持续小幅贬值,对股市有联动影响。另一方面则是行情在拉升后需要有增量资金支持,因为节后反弹由楼市密集调控,多头预期楼市资金回流股市所致,而目前股市存量资金极少,依靠自身显然无法推动持续反弹,但楼市资金调头又很难立竿见影,中间需要一个转换周期,因此行情在反弹后需要多方支撑一段时间,看看楼市资金是否能如预期般的进入股市。如果援军到达,不排除再上台阶,反之则高高举行轻轻放下。而目前是支撑等待的阶段,因此波幅很小,量能萎缩。至于资金能否增援,一是要看银证转账资金有没有持续的净流入,这要到下周二傍晚才会披露,需要再撑几天。二是看大盘在反弹中能否持续放量,只要放量,才是“心动不如行动”,是真正的言行一致,看多做多,否则不排除雷声大雨点小、明修栈道暗度陈仓的可能性。上述两点,还需要盘中印证。从技术上看,上证指数仍然在补缺口过程当中,上档3078点缺口位是短线目标,再往上,就是3088点年线位置了,考虑到时间已经进入四季度,没有特别消息的话,挑战年线的可能性不大。操作策略:重仓者分批减磅,兑现收益,控制仓位,谨慎追涨,短线为主。财政部第三批PPP示范项目落地,政策催化剂不断释放财政部联合20部委公布第三批政府和社会资本合作示范项目,示范项目推出能引起相关部门高度重视,加强配合,确保项目尽早落地,示范项目的成功经验也能帮助其他PPP项目顺利实施。资建议:重点推荐业绩弹性大、估值合理的PPP龙头:葛洲坝(估值最低的PPP+环保标的)、苏交科(稀缺设计标的,PPP优势明显)、东方园林(多个项目入选第三批示范项目)、铁汉生态(受益流域治理和海绵城市的PPP龙头)、龙元建设(PPP先发优势明显,龙头地位巩固)、围海股份(定增过会后压制股价因素解除)。建议关注几大建筑央企补涨需求,央企PPP份额高,今年以来订单和业绩都加速增长,股价一直在底部,可关注中国铁建、中国建筑、中国交建、中国中铁、中国电建、中国中冶。中小板三季度整体盈利优于上半年,建议关注内生外延双优的成长股近期市场仍处于窄幅震荡的格局,成交量处于历史低位,上证综指、中小板指、创业板指今年以来分别下跌13.50%、17.18%、18.62%。中小板和创业板约70%的公司呈现负收益,约36%的公司跑输指数,其中跌幅在0-30%的公司有745家,占比达55%。自上而下层面,我们坚定看好物联网、高端装备制造(包括新材料、集成电路)、服务业(包括教育、游戏电竞、家庭泛娱乐生态构建、VR娱乐等多个方面)、军工以及国企改革等行业。自下而上层面,一方面我们立足于寻找业绩成长确定性较高、估值具备安全边际的标的,同时结合我们对于覆盖公司的三季报业绩的综合判断,继续重点推荐:康得新、勤上光电、银轮股份、大港股份、兴森科技、金花股份、中元股份。另一方面,除了绩优成长股以外,建议关注三季报业绩扭亏为盈的公司。供给侧改革带来煤价暴涨供给侧稳步推进,供给收缩明显,煤价反弹趋势明显。2016年前8个月全国规模以上煤炭企业原煤产量21.8亿吨,同比减少2.47亿吨,下降10.2%。从月度产量变化看,4月份以来降幅分别为11%、15.5%、16.6%、13.1%和11%,均在10%以上。供给侧改革稳步推进,煤炭产量降幅扩大。前三季度动力煤价格均价415.92元 吨,同比下降6.5%,但是三季度均价475元 吨,较二季度均价上涨80元 吨,煤价反弹趋势明显。随着供给侧改革考核截至期的临近,关矿退出产能进入16年最后阶段,关矿速度将进一步加快,煤炭供需环境仍旧保持紧平衡状态。行业继续维持“看好”评级。重点推荐三季报预计超预期的陕西煤业、*ST新集;另外看好焦煤类上市公司潞安环能、西山煤电以及冀中能源。钢铁行业需求回暖看好钢价处于上涨趋势和供给侧改革推动的行业整合持续落地,维持行业“看好”评级,继续推荐有行业整合及重组预期的马钢股份、鞍钢股份、*ST八钢和*ST韶钢,和吨钢市值较低的三钢闽光、新钢股份、安阳钢铁。另外中秋节过后硅铁、硅锰、PVC价格持续大幅上涨,建议积极买入充分受益产品涨价的铁合金龙头鄂尔多斯。相关的主题文章: