Hang Seng Bank foreign exchange reserves China four stable material-vy canis majoris

Hang Seng Bank foreign exchange reserves: Chinese four stable sina finance App: Live on-line blogger to guide Sina Hong Kong APP: real time market exclusive reference stocks also worth the investment? What’s the problem? Where is the future? Sina launched the "Hong Kong Hong Kong stocks as well as unattractive" discussion, with a rational and constructive attitude, welcome attention to Hong Kong stocks, concern of the capital market, Hong Kong stocks together for suggestions, seek the Hong Kong stock market tomorrow. Please to hkstock_biz@sina. The people’s Bank of China announced today the foreign exchange reserves data in September, Hang Seng Bank senior economist Yao Shaohua analysis:? The latest data released by the people’s Bank of the morning, at the end of September 2016, Chinese foreign exchange reserves of $3 trillion and 170 billion. At the end of August below $3 trillion and 190 billion, also lower than market expectations of $3 trillion and 180 billion. In September, the foreign exchange reserves decreased by $18 billion 800 million compared with August, for the third consecutive month, while the foreign exchange reserves in August decreased by 15 billion 900 million dollars compared with July. By SDR, China’s foreign exchange reserves dropped from 2 trillion and 280 billion SDR in August to 2 trillion and 270 billion SDR in September. Foreign exchange reserves fell in September, and we think there are three main reasons. First of all, September coincides with the G20 summit held in Hangzhou, as well as the RMB in October 1st officially joined the SDR basket, the people’s bank or the use of foreign exchange reserves stable RMB exchange rate. Secondly, the RMB exchange rate depreciated slightly in September, or led to some capital outflows. According to our estimates, the end of September 2016, CFETS RMB exchange rate index is about 94.07, compared with the end of August 0.27% devaluation. In September, the monthly and onshore spot prices of the RMB against the US dollar depreciated by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively. Third, the mainland enterprises have stepped up the pace of "going out", and some of them invested in foreign exchange reserves, which also led to the decline in foreign exchange reserves. Based on the following four reasons, we expect that foreign exchange reserves will remain stable in the fourth quarter of this year. First of all, the RMB exchange rate will remain relatively stable in the coming months. Although the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again in December or, but the RMB has been officially included in the SDR basket in October 1st, the central bank will increase the RMB financial assets as reserves, and to prevent the property market bubble, the people’s bank or to maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged, we expected at the end of the U.S. dollar against the RMB onshore spot price is about 6.70. Secondly, the people’s Bank of China has further regulated cross-border capital flows in recent months, increasing cross-border speculative costs. Third, the people’s Bank of China speeds up the pace of opening up the interbank bond market and will attract foreign capital. In addition, the mainland will export moderately or mildly in the coming months, and the trade surplus will remain high. On the whole, we expect foreign exchange reserves to hover at around $3 trillion and 150 billion at the end of this year. Enter Sina Financial shares] discussion

恒生银行: 中国外汇储备第四季料稳定 新浪财经App:直播上线 博主一对一指导 新浪港股APP:实时行情 独家内参   港股还值不值得投资?出现了什么问题?未来出路在哪里?新浪港股发起“港股还有没有吸引力”大讨论,以理性、建设性的态度,欢迎关注港股、关注资本市场的人士,一起为港股建言献策,共谋港股市场的明天。来稿请至hkstock_biz@sina 。   人民银行今天公布9 月份的外汇储备数据,恒生银行高级经济师姚少华分析:   ? 人民银行上午公布的最新数据显示,截至2016年9月底,中国外汇储备为3.17万亿美元。低于8月底的3.19万亿美元,亦低于市场预期的3.18万亿美元。9月份外汇储备较8月减少188亿美元,为连续第3个月下跌, 而8月份外汇储备则较7月减少159亿美元。以SDR计,9月份中国外汇储备从8月份的2.28万亿SDR跌至2.27万亿SDR。   ? 9月份外汇储备下跌,我们认为主要有以下三方面原因。首先,9月份适逢G20峰会在杭州举行,以及人民币于10月1日正式加入SDR货币篮子,人民银行或动用部分外汇储备稳定人民币汇率。其次,人民币汇率在9月份略有贬值,或导致部分资本外流。根据我们的估算,2016年9月底,CFETS人民币汇率指数约为94.07,较8月底贬值0.27%。9月份人民币兑美元的月均在岸及离岸现货价亦分别贬值0.4%及0.3%。第三,内地企业加快“走出去”步伐,部分资本以外汇储备出资,亦导致外汇储备下降。   ? 基于以下四方面原因,我们预期外汇储备在今年第4季将基本维持稳定。首先,未来数月人民币汇率或维持相对稳定。尽管美国联储局或在12月份再次加息,但人民币在10月1日已正式纳入SDR货币篮子,各国央行将增加人民币金融资产作为外汇储备,加上为防止楼市泡沫,人民银行或保持基准利率不变,我们预期年底美元兑人民币在岸现货价为6.70左右。其次,人民银行最近数月已进一步规范了跨境资本流动,增加了跨境外汇投机成本。第三,人民银行加快了银行间债券市场的开放步伐,将吸引外资流入。此外,内地未来数月出口或温和反弹,贸易盈余将继续保持高位。整体而言,我们预期外汇储备在今年年底或徘徊在约3.15万亿美元的水平。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: